Tuesday, 16 January 2024

Coining Success: trends in the online brand prominence and overall value of cryptocurrencies

Following our initial proof-of-concept studies on the measurement of online brand prominence (looking at the top twenty fashion brands[1] and the 100 most valuable global brands[2]), we apply the same methodology to an analysis of the relative prominences of the top twenty cryptocurrencies[3,4], to determine which currencies are referenced most widely on the Internet, and determine whether this measure of prominence is correlated with their overall market capitalisation (i.e. total value).

The analysis is based on a set of approximately 500 webpages which are highly ranked on Google in response to one or more of a set of queries designed to return pages relating to cryptocurrency generally[5], but without specifying the name of any given currency specifically. An individual cryptocurrency is deemed to have been mentioned if a reference to either its name (specified as a 'match string'), or its currency abbreviation, are identified on the page, and a brand content score is then calculated for each individual cryptocurrency name on each page, based on the total number of mentions and the prominence on the page of each mention. The overall prominence score for each cryptocurrency is then calculated as the mean of the brand content scores across the set of pages analysed[6].

Cryptocurrency
                                            
Match string
                                            
Currency abbreviation
                                            
  Bitcoin   bitcoin   BTC
  Ethereum   ethereum   ETH
  Tether USDt   tether   USDT
  BNB Binance Coin   binance   BNB
  Solana   solana   SOL
  XRP Ripple   ripple   XRP
  US Dollar Coin   dollar.?coin   USDC
  Cardano   cardano   ADA
  Avalanche   avalanche   AVAX
  Dogecoin   dogecoin   DOGE
  Polkadot   polkadot   DOT
  TRON   tron   TRX
  Chainlink   chainlink   LINK
  Toncoin   toncoin   TON
  Polygon   polygon   MATIC
  Shiba Inu   shiba   SHIB
  Dai   dai   DAI
  Litecoin   litecoin   LTC
  Bitcoin Cash   bitcoin.?cash   BCH
  Cosmos   cosmos   ATOM

where '.?' denotes any or no (i.e. optional) additional single character

Table 1: Top twenty cryptocurrencies by market capitalisation, and the terms used to identify a mention of each cryptocurrency on a webpage

In order to treat all currencies identically as far as possible, each classified reference requires the match string or currency abbreviation to be preceded and succeeded by a character other than an alphabetical letter, for all currencies considered, to avoid false positives (e.g. for 'matic', we would not want to match words such as 'automatic', etc.). We also avoid the use of keyword-based filtering[7], working on the basis that the names are relatively distinctive, and all pages considered should relate to cryptocurrency and that the names are therefore unlikely to arise in unrelated contexts.

On the above basis, the relative online prominence scores for the twenty cryptocurrency brand names are shown in Table 2.

Cryptocurrency
                                            
Prominence score
                                            
  Bitcoin 10.693[8]
  Ethereum 2.735
  Tether USDt 0.304
  BNB Binance Coin 1.728
  Solana 0.588
  XRP Ripple 0.914
  US Dollar Coin 0.084
  Cardano 0.502
  Avalanche 0.288
  Dogecoin 0.669
  Polkadot 0.200
  TRON 0.097
  Chainlink 0.477
  Toncoin 0.070
  Polygon 0.198
  Shiba Inu 0.191
  Dai 0.043
  Litecoin 0.741
  Bitcoin Cash 0.193
  Cosmos 0.078

Table 2: Overall online prominence scores for the twenty cryptocurrencies

Figure 1 shows the relationship between these overall prominence scores and the market capitalisation of the cryptocurrencies in question.

Figure 1: (Log-log) plot of overall online prominence score against market capitalisation for the top twenty cryptocurrencies (with best-fit trend line as defined by a power series)

For the cryptocurrency brands, the correlation between online prominence and market capitalisation is striking (correlation coefficient = +0.984). Overall, the cryptocurrencies which have the greatest degree of online presence are those which are most valuable overall. It is also noteworthy that this is a much stronger relationship than was seen in the 'top 100 brands' study, where the brands were in a range of different industry sectors, and it was therefore much more difficult to assemble a set of webpages for analysis on which the brands could be compared on a like-for-like basis (as is much more the case for the cryptocurrency brands in this study).

In future studies, it will be interesting to determine whether similar relationships hold for other groups of brands in different industry verticals. Additionally, the methodology presented in this study will allow trends in prominence over time to be measured on a like-for-like basis; it will be instructive to track how closely the changing popularity of cryptocurrencies over time (and the emergence of new ones) follows variations in their value.

References

[1] https://www.iamstobbs.com/measuring-brand-prominence-of-fashion-brands-ebook

[2] https://www.iamstobbs.com/online-brand-prominence-and-sentiment-ebook

[3] https://coinmarketcap.com/

[4] https://cryptoslate.com/coins/ 

[5] 'crypto', 'cryptocurrency', 'cryptocurrency exchange', 'cryptocurrency invest', 'cryptocurrency market', 'cryptocurrency prices', 'cryptocurrency trading'

[6] Findings are based on searches and analysis carried out on 21-Dec-2023

[7] https://www.iamstobbs.com/google-gemini-ebook

[8] References to 'Bitcoin Cash' will also be counted as references to 'Bitcoin' unless the brand is referenced as 'BitcoinCash' (with no space) or 'BCH'. If we wanted to add a 'correction' to account for this double-counting, the worst-case scenario would be where all references to 'Bitcoin Cash' are double-counted in this way. If this were the case, we can adjust the brand content score for Bitcoin for each page, by subtracting the score for Bitcoin Cash for the page, before calculating the mean. This adjustment gives an overall prominence score for Bitcoin of 10.500 (i.e. a difference of under 2% from the original value) - and, in reality, the most representative score for Bitcoin will actually be somewhere between these two values. In this final study, however, the adjustment has not been applied, since it is also reasonable to make the case that any reference to Bitcoin Cash should also be counted as a reference to Bitcoin, since the name of the former cryptocurrency is derived from that of the latter (https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/bitcoin-cash-cryptocurrency-roger-ver-a8346816.html). 

This article was first published on 16 January 2024 at:

https://www.iamstobbs.com/opinion/coining-success-trends-in-the-online-brand-prominence-and-overall-value-of-cryptocurrencies

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